Dota2 · resolved market
Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea739262c5835aa490a48a7ee0b7ee510b1bb014365f0919a1bf2fa8ded7429d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Yes | 42c | 3,860$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.03 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 11c | 1,974$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 50c | 1,736$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Yes | 64c | 799.99$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…0f23backed Yes | 63c | 711.44$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 34c | 681.73$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.22 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 48c | 679$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 52c | 679$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Yes | 61c | 532.17$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.48 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…ea2ebacked Yes | 43c | 468.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 26c | 441.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 10c | 384$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…d8d8backed Yes | 67c | 373.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 342.42$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 317.95$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 74c | 310.38$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Yes | 60c | 266.46$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 256.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 238.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 67c | 217.65$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 36c | 206$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 47c | 201.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 51c | 199.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 34c | 193.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 186.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 70c | 155.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 21c | 147.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…f493backed Yes | 39c | 128.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 125.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 64c | 123.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…ef91backed Yes | 43c | 112.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…551ebacked Yes | 61c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…19acbacked Yes | 71c | 83.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…1f3fbacked Yes | 47c | 77.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 35c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…9482backed No | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 73.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…6275backed Yes | 70c | 65.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Yes | 25c | 63.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f2…33cfbacked Yes | 56c | 53.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 52.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed Yes | 64c | 52.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 31c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…fff8backed No | 31c | 49.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 32c | 45.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…17c9backed Yes | 38c | 35.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…ce65backed Yes | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 148 | 58.1%86 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…f17ebacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 32.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…30a0backed Yes | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed No | 58c | 30.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d8…00f3backed Yes | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 56c | 28.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…5276backed Yes | 56c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…9afabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…57d9backed Yes | 70c | 24.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceaf…0813backed Yes | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…ec1abacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026?this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will BetBoom Team win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will MOUZ win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will OG win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will PARIVISION win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will REKONIX win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Team Falcons win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Team Spirit win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Team Yandex win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.