Dota2 · resolved market
Will Xtreme Gaming win ESL One Birmingham 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6522f267d33784c3618111a43e4f18ec825a97a2219eae25dde98fa96cf4eda9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,627$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 1,238$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…be7cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,205$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…6275backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 10c | 320.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…6178backed Yes | 11c | 195.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Yes | 23c | 176.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…389abacked Yes | 11c | 143.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 19c | 104.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…5276backed Yes | 18c | 84.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…cca2backed Yes | 18c | 83.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 62.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xtreme Gaming win ESL One Birmingham 2026?this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will BetBoom Team win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will MOUZ win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will OG win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will PARIVISION win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will REKONIX win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Team Falcons win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Team Spirit win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Team Yandex win ESL One Birmingham 2026?No won
- Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.