Movies · resolved market
Will Sorry, Baby win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2989459fb1695103fdb7e125a495c6fd0c3246bb3eba5fb8014e799429e50f57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 55c | 862$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 54c | 766$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 46c | 727$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.42 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 45c | 601$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 34c | 524$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 34c | 510$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 66c | 397$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 39c | 383.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 66c | 367$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 46c | 354$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 45c | 296$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 46c | 245$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 56c | 204.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 66c | 143$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 66c | 127$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 112.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 31c | 98.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 61c | 74.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 48c | 46.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 76c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sorry, Baby win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?this page
- Will Peter Hujar's Day win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will The Plague win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.