Movies · resolved market
Will Train Dreams win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ee439c7c1af0695b4ba18c4d416100a5d23c618f9197842c0a61088cb3160d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 23c | 686$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 77c | 626$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 68c | 583$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 32c | 581$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 61c | 327.91$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked No | 49c | 301$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 51c | 301$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 53c | 245$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 31c | 206.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 32c | 184$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 68c | 182$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 9c | 151$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 76c | 111.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 77c | 108$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 25c | 94.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 80.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 39c | 46.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 27.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Train Dreams win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?this page
- Will Peter Hujar's Day win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will Sorry, Baby win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will The Plague win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.