Music · resolved market
Will "Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party - Hayley Williams" win Best Alternative Music Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59cf370950dc3c31d996597696db6b427f0103291cb33df79d38c7a2183ac0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 47c | 898$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 54c | 895$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed No | 46c | 619$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 47c | 513$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +224.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 53c | 405$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 48c | 357$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 53c | 331$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 53c | 325$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 53c | 287$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 53c | 286$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed No | 46c | 276$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 47c | 270$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 44c | 240.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…b7acbacked Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 36c | 117$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…3fb2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party - Hayley Williams" win Best Alternative Music Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will "DON'T TAP THE GLASS - Tyler, The Creator" win Best Alternative Music Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will "Songs Of A Lost World - The Cure" win Best Alternative Music Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will "moisturizer - Wet Leg" win Best Alternative Music Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.