AI · resolved market

Will: Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63fa05db5726e249d6eacdd9daedc810a9fcbb1bc526034396231b02572e66c7

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,521$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.59	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	6c	1,377$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.28	190	11.6%22 W · 168 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	999.88$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.48	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-3.2wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-76%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes	25c	821.97$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.49	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+5.7wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8266…c472backed Yes	12c	525.84$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.56	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5599…98c3backed Yes	21c	471.9$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.1	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	39cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes	23c	467$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.41	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes	19c	425.17$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.02	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	14c	319$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.73	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No	77c	309$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.07	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+3.4wins	+0.34per pick	46cpaid	+109%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes	17c	227$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes	14c	222$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-3.3wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes	19c	207$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.33	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed No	78c	192$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.24	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes	14c	188$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes	14c	154$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No	77c	153$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.19	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes	28c	150$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+4.3wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+160.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes	22c	137$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes	8c	127$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No	77c	114$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.22	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+3.6wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	16c	89.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	893	17.1%153 W · 740 L	-144.9wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes	23c	87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd668…a01cbacked Yes	28c	80$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes	21c	73$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.25per pick	35cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xead3…510dbacked Yes	28c	37.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	185	44.3%82 W · 103 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No	73c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.32	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will: Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event