AI · resolved market

Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfcb02b2c290d93b0018b7fe66f7b0546dd6993114c926cafec51327cc322ae5

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3744…c141backed Yes	6c	14,633$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-65%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,918$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.75	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a41…736bbacked Yes	3c	1,388$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+85%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c0…35e6backed Yes	9c	1,054$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	2c	798.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	724.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa154…321cbacked Yes	3c	456.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed Yes	3c	450$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes	3c	425.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	400.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	267	4.9%13 W · 254 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed Yes	7c	280$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…9916backed Yes	4c	269.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event