TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Naomi Osaka be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5144…f8f2backed No50c15,002$7,501 inWon+$7,5011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2667…5cd6backed Yes50c15,002$7,501 inLost-$7,50110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,754$11 inLost-$10.551,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes1c1,572$16 inLost-$15.723231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes29c1,371$398 inLost-$398.458122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed No65c1,050$683 inWon+$367.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+56.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0728…d4e0backed Yes4c401.03$18 inLost-$18.031060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c358.61$38 inLost-$37.8725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes18c330.47$60 inLost-$601428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13ac…fcbebacked Yes8c236.11$20 inLost-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost-$169333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes8c180.2$14 inLost-$14.422828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes23c180$42 inLost-$41.930127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes9c138.05$12 inLost-$12.426136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes8c125$10 inLost-$1028828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes11c113.96$13 inLost-$12.8818323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes38c80$30 inLost-$30.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked No65c61$40 inWon+$21.353053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes20c51.13$10 inLost-$10.232646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes33c41$14 inLost-$13.554447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed No80c37.13$30 inWon+$7.431850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.