AI · resolved market

Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6e47088a5d877da9d7e83aee1ded721a61e7c2c14a15fbbe14ae52cc9a69f2

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,777$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.98	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	3c	4,739$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.84	190	11.6%22 W · 168 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes	12c	2,712$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.77	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x647d…3cd9backed Yes	14c	2,000$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7c…1350backed Yes	11c	1,991$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.01	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22a…5eaabacked Yes	10c	1,959$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes	6c	1,769$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.78	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b4…c354backed Yes	3c	1,556$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.81	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed Yes	10c	1,370$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed Yes	13c	1,174$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.87	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	1,169$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.66	267	4.9%13 W · 254 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a3…2a32backed Yes	6c	1,086$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.02	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-65%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes	7c	885.04$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.81	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…32a0backed Yes	8c	774.99$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	27cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80b1…1846backed Yes	5c	727.19$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	9c	700$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.6	83	6%5 W · 78 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes	4c	693.11$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fcc…e491backed Yes	7c	535.32$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa154…321cbacked Yes	11c	499.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes	13c	490.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.27	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+3.2wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ff1…1ba4backed Yes	7c	423.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	12c	348.31$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	257	31.5%81 W · 176 L	-14.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	5c	311.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	11cpaid	+92.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9833…3f04backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	4c	286.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	45	4.4%2 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	12c	280.5$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.61	183	23%42 W · 141 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x763b…4777backed Yes	19c	268.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77cf…2d5fbacked Yes	16c	257.06$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-66%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	8c	198.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	288	26.7%77 W · 211 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ac…fcbebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	9c	154.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	479	38%182 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc723…c5aebacked Yes	11c	117.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event