AI · resolved market
Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074c63659bf1165ab50aa3115263a38476f1ca7ddf4c4593a4ea9944703c2bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 13,756$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…b174backed Yes | 1c | 5,972$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 2c | 2,316$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 23c | 1,559$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,349$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 15c | 909.6$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…4143backed Yes | 16c | 752.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 738.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…5b69backed Yes | 21c | 650$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 23c | 625$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 384.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 334.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 303.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 29c | 293.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 71c | 247$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 218.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 208.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 20c | 172.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked Yes | 31c | 160.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 24c | 142.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 22c | 131.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 115.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 76c | 109.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2319…4029backed Yes | 30c | 100.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 99.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…1a1fbacked Yes | 11c | 95.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…52edbacked Yes | 28c | 89.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…fcbebacked Yes | 30c | 70.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…410abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 74c | 43.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0728…d4e0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked No | 74c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?this page
- Will Caitlin Clark be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Jake Paul be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will João Fonseca be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Luka Dončić be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Naomi Osaka be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Shohei Ohtani be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Simone Biles be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes won
- Will Travis Kelce be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
- Will: Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.