Movies · resolved market
Will Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9d2db8a99871a30e34117c2a92b7a306076c5eb8a1d5b08217f5fe22587b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 5c | 1,584$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 14c | 1,308$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 15c | 852$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 4c | 749.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…44dcbacked No | 10c | 661$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 15c | 583$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 15c | 570$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 16c | 550$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 545.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 15c | 541$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 15c | 540$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 16c | 457$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 9c | 447.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 15c | 446$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 15c | 411$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…22b1backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 15c | 391$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 7c | 307.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 4c | 306.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 15c | 291$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked No | 12c | 282.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 15c | 277$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 4c | 268$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 15c | 252$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 236$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 228.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 15c | 217$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 15c | 188$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 168.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 135.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…278abacked No | 12c | 111.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 21c | 110.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 15c | 101.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 82.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.