Movies · resolved market
Will Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98809acbca22e949d795b7bd7bc0361942f1740928db76b0a8df63bbf808cdee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 12c | 1,757$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…5a7cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7762…309ebacked Yes | 12c | 920$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…bbffbacked Yes | 16c | 800$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…22b1backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…44f7backed Yes | 5c | 472.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 217.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 10c | 148.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 121.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.