Movies · resolved market
Will Pluribus win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b1db800e96a626665958718d40d1a5eccfd36da489a35d0688a1f7e2265084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,073$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 11c | 1,242$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 15c | 849$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 14c | 758$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 13c | 715$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 15c | 685$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 11c | 674$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 14c | 655$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 14c | 508$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 14c | 469$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 14c | 466$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 14c | 435$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 14c | 424$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 14c | 406$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 14c | 364$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…00cdbacked Yes | 21c | 288.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Yes | 10c | 269.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…0c67backed Yes | 19c | 266.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 78c | 261.89$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 14c | 260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 15c | 256$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…4b83backed Yes | 14c | 250.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 14c | 204$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 197.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 14c | 197$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 14c | 189$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 156.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9c…f335backed Yes | 24c | 107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 106.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…2cb2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 99.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked Yes | 13c | 92.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 17c | 89.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…e590backed Yes | 17c | 86.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…e86ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…b420backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pluribus win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Andor win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Severance win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Slow Horses win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will The Last of Us win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will The White Lotus win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.