Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei public appearance by February 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8c1cd3540463e2aec6f6ef7bda1d4786ea73b58116ff8521f46df6aade7c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 1c | 9,950$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,606$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…b41cbacked No | 1c | 3,189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…c7c5backed No | 4c | 3,067$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 1c | 2,806$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 78c | 2,167$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,117$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.82 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 23c | 1,219$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.86 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 13c | 1,054$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.39 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.54 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 920.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.92 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 789$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 29c | 787$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 19c | 549.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.71 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed No | 71c | 521$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…4ca9backed Yes | 20c | 489.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 16c | 434.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…a328backed No | 55c | 388$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 355$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.56 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 71c | 266$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 77c | 207$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 17c | 177.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 159.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…54babacked No | 13c | 157.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 19c | 137.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…66e6backed Yes | 18c | 119$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 28c | 108.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +317.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb923…30e4backed Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5790…3d0ebacked Yes | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…f6cabacked No | 80c | 67.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 40c | 64.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…ce9cbacked Yes | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed No | 74c | 56.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…dbb4backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…3b03backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 69c | 50.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…f2acbacked Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 32c | 38.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed No | 64c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…2fc1backed No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…6dd4backed No | 80c | 19.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…40a9backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb62b…bcf1backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei public appearance by February 13, 2026?this page
- Khamenei public appearance by February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Khamenei public appearance by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.