Movies · resolved market
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d69dad6e4b5d84e19e927a2a57a8d0fa3db7217cb315eb167056caaee8d90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 73c | 993$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 14c | 988$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 28c | 753$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.84 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 73c | 664$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 28c | 653$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 72c | 621$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 28c | 621$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 13c | 592$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 8c | 578.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 27c | 567$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 72c | 421$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 18c | 394$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 19c | 375$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 72c | 372$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 73c | 358$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 27c | 287$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 72c | 281$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 73c | 254$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 72c | 239$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked No | 73c | 162$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 27c | 151$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 27c | 147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 10c | 144.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 140.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 27c | 137$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 27c | 122$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 112.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 73.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 73c | 48.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 22.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 70c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Priscilla" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.