La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f623ef9bae0204d605052d5efb16daeaa354ba28b8cb41e73287eb73580100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rayo Vallecano de Madridof Real Oviedo, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73af…b880backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 13c | 2,787$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +759.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Real Oviedo | 24c | 718$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 76c | 411$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Real Oviedo | 24c | 388$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 76c | 355$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Real Oviedo | 24c | 355$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 76c | 312$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 76c | 295$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Real Oviedo | 24c | 295$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 76c | 284$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 76c | 277$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Real Oviedo | 24c | 135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5)this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.