Middle East · resolved market
Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf713ffa96689a3497760d73a9bdc3c6ad2244178f27bac51cbc2564c5b150696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 65c | 1,524$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 76c | 1,405$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 63c | 1,320$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 24c | 710$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed Yes | 24c | 695$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 37c | 689$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 35c | 675$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 37c | 631$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 35c | 599$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 29c | 525.86$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 50c | 523.06$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.53 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 72c | 468.21$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 38c | 373$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 26c | 336.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 70c | 317.66$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 49c | 287$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 257$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe845…0e1abacked Yes | 38c | 226.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…d2f5backed No | 74c | 223.46$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…c819backed Yes | 34c | 214.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 214.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 70c | 208.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes | 43c | 201$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 62c | 199.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed No | 62c | 198$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 151.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 28c | 137.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Yes | 54c | 134.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 129.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 63c | 126.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 58c | 119.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…74debacked Yes | 35c | 106.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1eb…0702backed Yes | 48c | 104.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619c…b656backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 57c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 44c | 100.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 99.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed No | 57c | 99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 21c | 98.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…22b8backed Yes | 24c | 95.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 54c | 92.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…5a21backed No | 65c | 88.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…e369backed Yes | 35c | 84.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 27c | 84.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…99d1backed Yes | 25c | 72.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 68.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc19f…d8b2backed No | 77c | 67.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…8946backed No | 77c | 67.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…53c3backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked No | 74c | 62.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…61d5backed No | 66c | 55.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 64c | 55.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…9120backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 47.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 31c | 43.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…f874backed Yes | 37c | 43.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…764abacked No | 50c | 35.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 39c | 26.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…10d0backed No | 63c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…cf76backed No | 68c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed No | 55c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…fee7backed No | 58c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 17.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?this page
- Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 15?No won
- Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.