Weather · resolved market
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7843c71cda18442e230759568992c32599014b655e3de844ed817c6a0bc635bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 10,501$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 12c | 2,249$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 16c | 2,247$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 11c | 1,825$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…fb18backed Yes | 17c | 1,806$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 78c | 1,724$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,207$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 22c | 837$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 483.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…3f01backed Yes | 17c | 367.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4b…88cebacked Yes | 19c | 284.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 247.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 210.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 167.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 22c | 152$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 21c | 117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 79c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…f2cfbacked Yes | 20c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…ac07backed Yes | 10c | 99.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…a468backed Yes | 13c | 81.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x322d…cbe2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 75c | 39.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?this page
- Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.