Ukraine · resolved market
Another ATACMS strike into Russian territory by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f04550400b828f59541679939d28d956b87b17e15a204646473d25f3843c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 499.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 455.55$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 68c | 323.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 13cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 37c | 199.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3b…a173backed Yes | 63c | 194.34$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 185.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 79c | 185.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 182.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 45c | 135.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 59c | 132.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked No | 78c | 127.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 50c | 103.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa265…a9dfbacked No | 50c | 100.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 49c | 78.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 60c | 77.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 51c | 46.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 58c | 45.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 68c | 44.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed No | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 58c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…d209backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 51c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 29.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97f…b64ebacked No | 42c | 25.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 51c | 23.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.