TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$579,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$632,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,357 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfde6…7ed6backed No0c43,840$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6890%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No5c42,276$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.487129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c34,200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.24440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No5c21,258$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.474161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No4c17,691$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.8234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226e…92abbacked No26c10,609$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No4c9,791$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.753010%3 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-82.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2405…2551backed No6c8,745$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7db…4775backed No3c8,371$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca7…b067backed No46c7,319$3,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,367.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No7c7,150$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.085648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No7c6,378$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.6910646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8880…ecc2backed No4c6,220$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed No5c5,773$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x750d…c92fbacked No6c5,099$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No5c4,762$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No4c4,731$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.791650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+138.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca2…d48cbacked Yes74c3,740$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0385…8389backed Yes74c3,713$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad24…38dbbacked No4c3,638$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f5…65abbacked No4c3,619$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa567…912dbacked Yes74c3,300$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No20c3,228$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.7915026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f42…4233backed No3c3,226$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+121.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a5…3dc3backed No3c3,187$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No8c3,183$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.065932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…9595backed No4c3,103$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a0…fd9fbacked No2c2,563$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed No6c2,497$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No3c2,439$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.196219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c2,315$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.681357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc88…c4e5backed No1c2,146$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a30…99ecbacked No1c1,840$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No4c1,812$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.23920.5%8 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No7c1,800$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.818628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No6c1,701$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1311738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x111b…2ed0backed No3c1,669$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c1,666$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.52543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No3c1,654$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.93616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…f6e3backed Yes64c1,556$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…c83bbacked No4c1,543$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No6c1,519$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb1…085cbacked No5c1,511$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a91…ee61backed No7c1,509$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9914240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,468$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.751,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae4…ad95backed No4c1,455$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c6…7d63backed No3c1,446$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No6c1,418$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.22117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…76aebacked No3c1,366$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed No4c1,363$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.64425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc86…7b08backed No6c1,318$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No5c1,287$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5317037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No4c1,224$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.914928.6%14 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x009f…f7abbacked No4c1,153$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No3c1,148$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8049…b09dbacked No4c1,076$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.581338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked No6c1,036$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.123857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec21…df18backed No3c1,006$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78a…cd4bbacked Yes5c1,000$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+963.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No3c957$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No12c943.43$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.495313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked No7c868.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…467fbacked No3c853.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No3c825.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.245345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No4c779.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No6c764.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2236055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a1…33b2backed No9c758.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked Yes6c754.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.23650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+793.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x33c8…8cefbacked No7c744.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No11c715.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.163417.6%6 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No5c659.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9412249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0908…1550backed No5c624.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6665…2afdbacked No19c616.81$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No8c599.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9313444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86a7…e3a4backed No4c553.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe990…5f0abacked No5c521.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x415d…9883backed No5c499.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb69…dc66backed No5c491.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No5c467.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.584654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b64…1cc0backed No6c465.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7334…82ddbacked No5c465.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb961…dfe3backed Yes78c463.08$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eea…8a4dbacked No5c462.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No6c460.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes15c456.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2211349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x212f…a834backed Yes73c432.14$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbdf…b098backed No3c417.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes49c407.59$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.624247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47ba…42a9backed No16c405.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875c…5943backed No12c387.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x593d…2c52backed No3c369.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No4c360$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2131152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No3c350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No24c339$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0519237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x282c…c772backed Yes74c336.17$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No4c332.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0710151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No3c329.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9218762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c48…5015backed No6c318.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.