World Politics · resolved market
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca83131929f53bb417dfbd8e67aa8bc0c38d40303dbdfa97601b1cb7bd7232b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 38,088$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…2551backed Yes | 0c | 14,441$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 7,253$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…bb84backed Yes | 0c | 6,235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,929$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,103$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…418bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,750$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…b7c6backed Yes | 10c | 2,740$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2173…c544backed Yes | 9c | 1,975$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097b…1e48backed Yes | 9c | 1,741$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…e49fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,582$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…b032backed Yes | 9c | 1,576$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…4bafbacked Yes | 9c | 1,374$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…6502backed Yes | 12c | 1,374$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 18c | 1,256$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x244f…782bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,188$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…cf78backed Yes | 12c | 1,080$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…456cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,052$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…738ebacked Yes | 12c | 993$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…33d4backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 12c | 850.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…ef6ebacked Yes | 16c | 825.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291c…05f8backed Yes | 12c | 783$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…06fbbacked Yes | 12c | 591$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 74c | 577.27$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.23 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…eaa8backed Yes | 10c | 499.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…2a34backed Yes | 6c | 485.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…82debacked Yes | 12c | 472$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 301$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 172.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…274bbacked Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed Yes | 18c | 80.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 37c | 71.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…bd49backed No | 72c | 34.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?this page
- Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?Yes won
- Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?No won
- Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.