World Politics · resolved market
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5847ca055bf898415cfa3c18720d17c3174f04297d0772be8516e59706565d60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 0c | 51,600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 2c | 20,469$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.43 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…a852backed Yes | 9c | 11,342$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…bb84backed Yes | 3c | 10,517$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…ad95backed Yes | 2c | 7,052$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…6253backed Yes | 6c | 5,947$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…21c1backed Yes | 5c | 5,213$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…a02cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,872$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…2551backed Yes | 5c | 3,584$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…01e7backed Yes | 7c | 3,162$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f6…c698backed Yes | 4c | 3,158$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,504$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Yes | 4c | 2,301$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…e235backed Yes | 9c | 2,153$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…c567backed Yes | 1c | 2,139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,077$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0337…294ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,924$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…b51bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,687$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…95bebacked Yes | 5c | 1,605$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 5c | 1,593$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc86…7b08backed Yes | 5c | 1,336$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…e49fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,159$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,047$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287e…cbf5backed Yes | 4c | 1,021$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…1e33backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 992.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 941.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…f47cbacked Yes | 7c | 810.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 789.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 694.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5881…c756backed Yes | 8c | 668.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…c529backed Yes | 3c | 655.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…9174backed Yes | 3c | 501.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bd33backed Yes | 8c | 501.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…eaa8backed Yes | 2c | 500.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…dc13backed Yes | 7c | 486.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…7341backed Yes | 4c | 467.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 7c | 464.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…c1debacked Yes | 4c | 430.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9825backed Yes | 3c | 415.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 5c | 390$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…e739backed Yes | 5c | 360.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 332.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…c791backed Yes | 8c | 331.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f6…59f0backed Yes | 4c | 319.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…2b72backed Yes | 6c | 259.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 230.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…1f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 221.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244f…782bbacked Yes | 6c | 219.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?this page
- Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?No won
- Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?Yes won
- Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.