Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x981743cb9ed7886e1f136f2012561f684afa8fe4d7a0a089c2111cc813abc539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $370,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 4c | 32,671$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.45 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 13c | 22,055$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.57 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 9c | 10,970$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.05 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 6c | 10,050$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…9122backed Yes | 12c | 8,882$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…fbebbacked Yes | 10c | 8,342$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.06 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 7c | 8,110$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.54 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 6c | 7,382$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.65 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 73c | 7,106$5,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.01 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…73c8backed Yes | 14c | 6,360$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…45a3backed Yes | 15c | 5,425$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 7c | 5,166$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.85 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 19c | 5,096$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.96 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…5668backed Yes | 6c | 4,947$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…5ffebacked Yes | 6c | 4,094$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 4c | 3,421$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…37dbbacked Yes | 15c | 3,299$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 7c | 3,245$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.02 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…f754backed Yes | 5c | 2,949$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 2,833$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…dd48backed No | 74c | 2,804$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…963bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,757$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,610$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.37 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 13c | 2,164$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.09 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…938bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,053$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 10c | 2,037$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 20c | 2,001$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…4e24backed Yes | 31c | 1,950$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 3c | 1,934$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 10c | 1,911$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…a082backed Yes | 8c | 1,723$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 5c | 1,706$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 25c | 1,704$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 24c | 1,701$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 17c | 1,598$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.76 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…8d85backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,420$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…9631backed Yes | 8c | 1,324$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…ab07backed Yes | 8c | 1,314$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,153$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6314…4b48backed Yes | 7c | 1,117$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…35b5backed Yes | 18c | 1,116$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 11c | 1,110$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 7c | 1,083$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…2fc9backed Yes | 5c | 1,039$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…9f83backed Yes | 8c | 1,022$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee3…af54backed Yes | 15c | 1,003$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…0293backed Yes | 9c | 981.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 10c | 977.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 7c | 924.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 5c | 873.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…eeb4backed Yes | 23c | 871.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…4513backed Yes | 12c | 850.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 25c | 829.69$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.47 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 19c | 796.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes | 7c | 768$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 20c | 755.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…a188backed Yes | 14c | 728.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 22c | 727.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 19c | 717.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 17c | 703$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 14c | 700.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…e944backed No | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 75c | 700$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…909abacked Yes | 15c | 635.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 14c | 599.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908c…f9bebacked Yes | 8c | 589.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 15c | 588.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 20c | 582.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…273cbacked Yes | 6c | 571.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…aeb3backed Yes | 26c | 549.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…1064backed Yes | 4c | 548.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…23abbacked Yes | 11c | 541.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed No | 79c | 521.55$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 16c | 517.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…4bbebacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 75c | 500$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…6d6cbacked Yes | 21c | 492.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 23c | 466.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…9f4dbacked Yes | 11c | 453.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 76c | 450$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…0141backed Yes | 9c | 445$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…acecbacked Yes | 6c | 441.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 430.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…bc5bbacked Yes | 13c | 422.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a72…a524backed Yes | 24c | 411.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 21c | 409.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 403.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…3878backed Yes | 25c | 403.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.