World Politics · resolved market
North Korea missile test by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x612e2abcab7e4337cd45d89e120c42a982bcd90886aa7aff3dcdd205f5ffa4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 4,371$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 2,805$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,953$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 16c | 1,806$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,635$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed No | 79c | 1,449$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 1,309$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.33 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 7c | 980.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 5c | 896.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 76c | 871.6$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 6c | 601.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 18c | 459.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 440$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 32c | 391.22$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 390.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 22c | 298.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked No | 74c | 281.31$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 250.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 18c | 192.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 189.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 80c | 187.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 183.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 178.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 9c | 147.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…2491backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 19c | 91.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 74c | 90.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 78.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 49c | 50.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 38c | 34.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.