Middle East · resolved market
Israel retaliates against Houthis before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6e2b73713eb9092ee50aac493589148209a39640a0808fb08c23bd0cc2d343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa94b…a910backed Yes | 6c | 1,783$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,511$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 7c | 938.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 16c | 922.24$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 884.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…fc3abacked Yes | 11c | 550$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 3c | 498.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 7c | 483.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 463.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 238.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 12c | 231.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…fa50backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…7459backed Yes | 12c | 177$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed Yes | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…cba8backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 80.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…8928backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.