Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d30bd8d2a7fd7322f016fd967caa9082bb191aa4e6e96029095d5f4795f5b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 52c | 6,979$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,378.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 5,000$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,825 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 19c | 4,330$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503.66 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 59c | 2,973$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 53c | 2,294$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 23c | 1,972$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.5 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 4c | 1,525$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…9f86backed Yes | 39c | 1,486$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 9c | 1,228$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,188$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 1,078$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 28c | 1,052$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.05 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed No | 68c | 1,029$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 5c | 1,001$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…a74fbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 52c | 967.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 21c | 920$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 14c | 894.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 64c | 838.17$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…20c5backed Yes | 32c | 831.65$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed No | 19c | 766.91$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +440.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 64c | 766.91$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…55b4backed Yes | 6c | 763.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 20c | 688$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 34c | 600.77$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 65c | 530.92$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 11c | 503.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 20c | 443.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 7c | 400.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 12c | 399.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 30c | 312.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 7c | 299.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 299.7$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…bf9dbacked No | 69c | 291.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 11c | 264.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 68c | 235.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 28c | 230.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 76c | 215.49$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 10c | 215$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 65c | 213.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 64c | 190.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 32c | 186.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 31c | 175$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…c75cbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 64c | 143.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 56c | 126.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 71c | 126.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…2fcdbacked Yes | 40c | 126.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Yes | 10c | 121.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 33c | 121.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 119.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 75c | 112.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed No | 18c | 105.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +446.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 61c | 102.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 28c | 101.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 32c | 100.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…6e03backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…621fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,056.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…9a00backed Yes | 62c | 95.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 90.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 73c | 84.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7173backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 61c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…ccbbbacked No | 76c | 70.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b0f6backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…965dbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 68c | 63.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 36c | 61.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ed…1db7backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 59.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 58.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…b6c1backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…4853backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 60c | 54.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 63c | 51.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…fe08backed No | 74c | 49.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…03dbbacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…58e4backed Yes | 35c | 43.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfc…bfb3backed No | 65c | 43.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…e247backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…8c58backed No | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…c331backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…44bfbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…66f1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…ac2ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…721dbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ce…7394backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.