Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280ee60a0c6e726f38b968c13bded20b039935c55bd5c0b7473c451ad7b71186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb407…252cbacked No | 29c | 975.38$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…d246backed Yes | 70c | 715.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…1e81backed No | 24c | 425.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 18c | 403$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 20c | 348.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…36ccbacked No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 9c | 257.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 75c | 208.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…5feebacked Yes | 72c | 206.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…593abacked Yes | 78c | 188.24$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 80c | 148.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…a7b6backed No | 24c | 127.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 12c | 126.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 17c | 109.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 77c | 107.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 18c | 103.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 78c | 92.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 85.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 27.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…3db8backed Yes | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6b…9c50backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…e951backed Yes | 80c | 19.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will Ukraine target Moscow by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.