AI · resolved market
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa30e255971167abd1019dc75b226f805c6466eeb9dfb338375e6da5e6528538c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 0c | 10,646$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 6,999$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 9c | 1,683$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 1,611$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 79c | 1,362$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 77c | 1,290$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.48 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 79c | 1,198$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 1,156$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,049$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 13c | 1,043$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 13c | 918.3$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 22c | 772.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…5f53backed No | 12c | 766.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…ae43backed Yes | 76c | 718.92$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…1749backed No | 4c | 555.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 8c | 453.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 434.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…7645backed No | 25c | 390.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 19c | 375.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 23c | 352$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 19c | 349.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 5c | 338.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 21c | 322.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…422dbacked Yes | 76c | 262.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…12d5backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 8c | 251.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 10c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 75c | 242$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 5c | 238.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…507fbacked Yes | 79c | 227.41$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed No | 36c | 219.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 212$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 14c | 178$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 7c | 161.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 34c | 108.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 15c | 106.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 16c | 104.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…3cc7backed No | 10c | 100.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7143…2c75backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…dcc3backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9a61backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…3455backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 15c | 99.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked Yes | 73c | 96.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 68c | 73.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 74c | 63.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…414abacked Yes | 80c | 62.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe8…6feabacked Yes | 76c | 62.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…0972backed Yes | 78c | 62.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed No | 23c | 59.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 25c | 47.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 79c | 39.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…d5fabacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…4bc4backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…05eebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8b…015dbacked Yes | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…493abacked Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.