AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe2aa6aab96dcb4bc750cea312f093ab194344836be655e5a8eb3a5fd9d0796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 5c | 16,293$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 14,259$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 14,019$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,255$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,867$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,785$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 13c | 4,568$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.63 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…471abacked Yes | 21c | 3,737$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 30c | 3,349$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.22 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 30c | 3,311$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,766$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…5f53backed Yes | 7c | 2,054$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…30fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 70c | 1,499$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 74c | 1,471$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.03 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 2c | 1,269$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,232$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…5e16backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 983.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 11c | 980.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 73c | 900$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 18c | 721.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 660.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 23c | 623.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 11c | 595.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 542.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 487.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 452.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…493abacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 221.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed Yes | 24c | 214.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 78c | 140.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 78c | 137.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…a211backed Yes | 26c | 94.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 75.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…057dbacked No | 77c | 38.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed No | 71c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…8289backed No | 69c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -82%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…6939backed No | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…f1bcbacked No | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…14bcbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…56ccbacked No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.