AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14054833688ec4b5e001ec84a962378c29039eaee7f33b3867cf7e2d5ee5cf37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 26,435$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.74 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…52bdbacked Yes | 6c | 12,251$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…fe70backed Yes | 1c | 7,050$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,916$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,133$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…602ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,016$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b95…e373backed Yes | 3c | 2,165$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,132$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e3…83e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,863$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…d5fabacked Yes | 4c | 1,260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…3c81backed Yes | 4c | 1,205$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5218backed Yes | 3c | 861.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 6c | 832.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 6c | 794.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 4c | 758$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 2c | 644.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 2c | 634.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 4c | 507.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 4c | 399.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 9c | 287$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…8ce6backed Yes | 4c | 280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…64fabacked Yes | 4c | 278.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…86a6backed Yes | 5c | 277.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.