NFL · resolved market
NFL Week 4: Dirty Bird Special
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c871551a2237d09a5a55829002986a761e16a8b34338cd0042783f80205980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 80c | 2,079$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 28c | 650$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed Yes | 10c | 502.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Yes | 29c | 413.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Yes | 34c | 396.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 73c | 199.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…1b0fbacked Yes | 32c | 186.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ec…a686backed Yes | 30c | 168.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Yes | 30c | 164.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…ad9dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 29c | 79.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…4455backed Yes | 28c | 75.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d333backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 28c | 51.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.