Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3c3c8a98bfeba49e6594f8e72a5f21a40fb5cd8663507345ea17de2e6085e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Down | 5c | 17,104$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.85 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 11c | 2,489$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.87 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Down | 16c | 2,075$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 6c | 1,859$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 4c | 1,844$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 12c | 1,208$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 1c | 1,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Down | 7c | 665.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 18c | 612.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Down | 22c | 555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7c…cb0abacked Down | 17c | 550$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 6c | 476.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…73b4backed Down | 23c | 457.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Up | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Down | 7c | 352.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Down | 16c | 340$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…75b9backed Down | 17c | 340$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Down | 10c | 289.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 8c | 254$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…55f6backed Down | 23c | 250.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Down | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…4623backed Down | 14c | 179.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Down | 22c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Up | 69c | 109$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Down | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Down | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Down | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d654backed Down | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…9ffcbacked Down | 29c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Up | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.