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World Politics · resolved market

Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$714,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $714,790 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe274…ee86backed Yes8c37,974$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.613321.2%7 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes22c28,007$6,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,102.74780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes10c25,141$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.0916612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66bc…8201backed Yes4c22,943$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713a…762abacked Yes3c21,785$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x509f…039dbacked Yes2c18,764$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c18,239$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6211013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes29c17,072$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.5111853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes3c16,057$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.843342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes39c15,921$6,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,26811247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd03c…45fcbacked Yes13c12,581$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6781618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes16c11,781$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.37313.2%1 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…45b1backed Yes4c11,530$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.331435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x902b…ed12backed Yes11c9,972$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1195…fff1backed Yes25c9,556$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…bc49backed Yes10c7,999$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.262714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…5f47backed Yes11c7,204$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c7,041$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.291,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c1…4952backed Yes38c6,643$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,49820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2b7…3a48backed Yes24c6,461$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Yes4c6,450$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.851952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd815…4c7abacked Yes19c6,318$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752b…466bbacked Yes14c6,067$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked Yes9c5,529$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.641833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x247c…7ecdbacked Yes23c5,392$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Yes6c5,388$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.35825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7a…296bbacked Yes8c5,349$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cac…deb0backed Yes4c5,290$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed Yes19c5,234$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes35c5,210$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.018932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f6…5883backed Yes0c4,903$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52d…49c6backed Yes8c4,752$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x039a…e3a0backed Yes4c4,500$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…5be5backed Yes13c4,493$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.87825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9df…23d2backed Yes6c4,024$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes20c3,836$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.510131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes2c3,734$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.491827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…f140backed No79c3,714$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eec…3e10backed Yes8c3,542$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-47.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x023f…ee11backed Yes6c3,404$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06e…f2f9backed Yes10c3,312$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.82195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes42c3,302$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.524055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacee…d323backed Yes13c3,253$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b31…11a8backed No60c3,220$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes26c3,183$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.081233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x710b…e12bbacked Yes14c3,168$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e0…e891backed Yes17c3,121$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f2…e0efbacked Yes7c3,062$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca25…aecebacked Yes13c3,002$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.34110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No67c2,983$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.146533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes9c2,946$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.435626.8%15 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e7…21a8backed Yes27c2,899$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.421540%6 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb82…d2b7backed Yes19c2,628$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc4…2d40backed Yes29c2,461$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfa…7eacbacked Yes6c2,451$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31de…c1e3backed Yes2c2,240$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf269…0460backed Yes20c2,217$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.531414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-55.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ae6…17cdbacked Yes27c2,177$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.96333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes10c2,100$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes7c2,059$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.333619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes33c2,000$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6668632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2f…07a0backed Yes6c1,944$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.81933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+94.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…708bbacked Yes43c1,943$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a82…affcbacked Yes26c1,908$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes23c1,877$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.743745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes10c1,876$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.533020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes26c1,862$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.458231.7%26 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655f…0788backed Yes34c1,732$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes9c1,730$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.687125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e94…7074backed No75c1,727$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff4…fb3ebacked No61c1,704$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2af7…fb94backed Yes7c1,656$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes15c1,638$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.674721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No78c1,619$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.733435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes22c1,610$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.191717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes26c1,600$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.92828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No61c1,598$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+114%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69bb…2c25backed Yes6c1,453$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaea…2438backed Yes20c1,333$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes13c1,296$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.37786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a5…729bbacked Yes18c1,273$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.82837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d8b…14ccbacked Yes13c1,264$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.631625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…6bcfbacked Yes8c1,254$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes11c1,250$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed No60c1,200$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7535…9375backed Yes11c1,188$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb558…3d55backed Yes13c1,181$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.161618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1aa…13f1backed Yes35c1,144$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0f…275abacked Yes8c1,126$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a3…f628backed Yes9c1,096$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3517…2a0bbacked No79c1,085$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffa4…3ce8backed Yes17c1,056$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.15520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-70.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…a818backed Yes10c1,045$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67e…ca0dbacked Yes5c1,023$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x470a…8151backed Yes11c1,020$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4403…7c46backed Yes31c1,017$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x989c…4fd0backed Yes38c1,000$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.451520%3 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ea…97f1backed Yes19c1,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.