World Politics · resolved market
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42659126f4c72922009cbc7f4d88fe1dcfaf8ef21dcc1212c2604fa0cd636452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $478,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x039a…e3a0backed Yes | 0c | 43,582$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…296bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,858$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 32,103$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.24 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b2…d4d4backed Yes | 4c | 31,158$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…45fcbacked Yes | 5c | 17,445$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.57 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes | 2c | 16,134$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…ee11backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 8c | 12,391$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +454.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…7dd4backed Yes | 1c | 10,053$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 9,871$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 8,870$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 1c | 7,845$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…284bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,436$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a82…affcbacked Yes | 3c | 7,177$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 5c | 5,981$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed Yes | 5c | 5,468$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb558…3d55backed Yes | 3c | 5,228$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…ee62backed Yes | 1c | 4,514$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…0d58backed Yes | 5c | 4,366$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…3e10backed Yes | 2c | 3,812$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…a464backed Yes | 2c | 3,041$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2212…336bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,563$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233f…051cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,557$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…3a48backed Yes | 2c | 2,370$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…e843backed Yes | 6c | 2,342$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…4441backed Yes | 7c | 2,100$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…c37cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,991$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8379…7b44backed Yes | 4c | 1,781$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…961ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,493$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…275abacked Yes | 1c | 1,193$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…c5b3backed Yes | 8c | 1,192$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…4e97backed Yes | 8c | 1,149$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…236bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,126$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…3a6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…1228backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 942.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b0e6backed Yes | 8c | 938.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 903.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 5c | 853.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…3ce8backed Yes | 6c | 780.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…3ccfbacked Yes | 9c | 738.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…a8d9backed Yes | 3c | 718.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…2429backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a5…4179backed Yes | 8c | 594$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…d910backed Yes | 8c | 593.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54cb…a308backed Yes | 5c | 571.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…59f0backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a2…c48ebacked Yes | 7c | 486.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…2b59backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc555…17babacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d86…13babacked Yes | 5c | 287$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…8fcbbacked Yes | 4c | 260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 10c | 237.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 5c | 223.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…c574backed Yes | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…3578backed Yes | 9c | 164.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?this page
- Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?No won
- Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.