TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,252 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes48c19,809$9,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,313.3211428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked No61c18,769$11,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,429.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes19c7,692$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,245.1310630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c7,481$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.861,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes39c6,808$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,150.762020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No68c6,096$4,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,166.3110950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes47c4,522$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.224259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes53c3,367$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.521634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb068…4befbacked No1c3,288$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5085…d8a4backed No1c3,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+207.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes35c2,977$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No58c2,952$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.1717633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes39c2,754$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.538134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No45c2,649$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes38c2,378$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.0715155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefd…3f9dbacked Yes17c1,500$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+50.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes11c1,476$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.672334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes41c1,457$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.2315032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No68c1,299$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.9519348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes21c1,167$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.257638.2%29 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c1,165$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.9755618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes7c1,129$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.683989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes17c1,047$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.857672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes12c986.3$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.9914819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes48c869.36$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.043729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes66c736.7$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0523149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes3c708.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.61717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+170.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c664.92$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.7344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes45c600$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.136431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.53537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes5c499.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.482025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes4c489.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.191717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+117.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb5…3a60backed Yes7c464.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,404.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No38c448.3$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked No74c404$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes4c371.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.65825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf541…5505backed Yes7c365.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.22616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+143.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b4…1b35backed Yes7c356.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+403.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed No48c315$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.53743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes29c310$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.888253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2052…529fbacked Yes16c300.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+517.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee8d…9b9bbacked No61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c299.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes7c292.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2912643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb77…7368backed Yes35c285.02$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.021020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…18a1backed No56c284.71$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.931241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes22c273.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8211612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes14c270$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8737740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e4…2420backed Yes10c253.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.032445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d7…c725backed Yes6c250$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2352020%4 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes47c221.21$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.791844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6925…7413backed No52c217.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c206.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes10c203.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacfc…512cbacked Yes36c201.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ca…4dd3backed No51c185.92$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed No59c168.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+41.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c168.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.851,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24c2…077cbacked Yes60c167.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+81.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a86…243dbacked Yes15c165.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.26425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x835e…99ffbacked No63c163.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02d…17e8backed No77c149.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.831172.7%8 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes50c141$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.884242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b40…6ec9backed No47c122.04$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes16c120$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.042437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No79c101.69$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.658057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.312560%15 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.54040%16 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+82.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0197…70dcbacked Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.251833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed No65c92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.122744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+720.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6a…f057backed Yes54c87$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+304.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No73c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No54c80$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.498441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes16c76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.145440.7%22 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed Yes21c72.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.38156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes20c70$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8730319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7367…cc69backed Yes37c54.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No79c52.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3820446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6a…a012backed Yes54c51.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.341233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8e…923fbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.46650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffdd…c06fbacked No54c42.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.833647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes48c41.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7412839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…aa07backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes26c39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.984156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No68c38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.978229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No66c35.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9936527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No73c34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.925442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No60c33.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd1…b0fbbacked No74c31.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…587bbacked No50c28.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick64cpaid-44.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a96…5fa8backed No64c23.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed No60c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.825851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8702…1f68backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.