College Football · resolved market
Syracuse vs. Washington State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd936aa1aac00c81186851806d68ec99325b37c6c20a20302404c1016ae403043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Syracuseof Syracuse, Washington State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x092a…fe82backed Washington State | 14c | 127,000$17,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Syracuse | 79c | 26,646$21,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,510.6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Washington State | 20c | 14,070$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.35 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Washington State | 23c | 6,022$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.22 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…2cb4backed Washington State | 13c | 2,755$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Washington State | 17c | 2,430$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.03 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Washington State | 21c | 1,926$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Syracuse | 78c | 1,709$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.96 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8b…90a6backed Washington State | 20c | 1,526$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Washington State | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Washington State | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Washington State | 5c | 1,234$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…482abacked Washington State | 13c | 1,233$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Washington State | 9c | 1,171$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Washington State | 7c | 1,055$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Washington State | 19c | 1,051$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Washington State | 8c | 1,045$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…8278backed Washington State | 15c | 1,005$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Washington State | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed Washington State | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Washington State | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…57a2backed Washington State | 13c | 877.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…54dabacked Washington State | 13c | 780.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Washington State | 11c | 686.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Washington State | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +84%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Washington State | 14c | 593.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Washington State | 11c | 588.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61e…f76ebacked Washington State | 13c | 582.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +249%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Washington State | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…cc30backed Washington State | 13c | 464.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Washington State | 14c | 456.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…8ed4backed Washington State | 14c | 428.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…9c30backed Washington State | 13c | 405.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…7055backed Syracuse | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Washington State | 11c | 399.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…b03fbacked Syracuse | 78c | 362.27$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Washington State | 6c | 326.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ba…2971backed Washington State | 25c | 307.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Washington State | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…eeaabacked Syracuse | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…dc84backed Washington State | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a2…10ecbacked Washington State | 14c | 296.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Washington State | 11c | 274.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0a…8f8abacked Washington State | 13c | 261.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…2629backed Washington State | 12c | 240.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Washington State | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Washington State | 12c | 227.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…9af3backed Washington State | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Washington State | 21c | 219.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…794bbacked Washington State | 14c | 215.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e030backed Washington State | 11c | 210.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Syracuse | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…9c99backed Washington State | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4246…100dbacked Washington State | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…d7adbacked Washington State | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Washington State | 20c | 173.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington State | 25c | 168$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Syracuse | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Syracuse | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbd…a594backed Washington State | 13c | 122.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Washington State | 22c | 122.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…b823backed Washington State | 13c | 117.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…a27fbacked Washington State | 13c | 116.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…71c4backed Washington State | 13c | 115.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a22dbacked Washington State | 13c | 113.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…fc95backed Washington State | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Washington State | 14c | 110.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Washington State | 15c | 103.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Washington State | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Syracuse | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Washington State | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Washington State | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Washington State | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…0917backed Washington State | 13c | 97.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f3b3backed Washington State | 13c | 96.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…e188backed Washington State | 13c | 89.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…38f8backed Washington State | 13c | 78.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…2fa7backed Washington State | 26c | 73.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Washington State | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Washington State | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…7589backed Washington State | 28c | 67.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Syracuse | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Washington State | 27c | 49.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Washington State | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.