Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $230 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21b2301c15baf63a0cd2f835e91c14ffc0653a9c31b42e2441b5d2568d6369e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf55b…c69cbacked Yes | 11c | 41,589$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 24c | 12,330$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.56 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 71c | 9,000$6,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,420.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…3545backed No | 66c | 8,079$5,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765.56 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 70c | 5,247$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.79 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 32c | 4,689$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.72 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 38c | 3,628$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.18 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 55c | 3,517$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.66 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 57c | 2,881$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.64 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 35c | 2,847$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.13 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 9c | 2,802$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,303$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 62c | 1,079$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.93 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +7.9wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed No | 28c | 1,068$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 1,031$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 61c | 818.05$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…7776backed No | 34c | 804$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.11 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 41c | 509.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.69 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 67c | 500$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.01 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 46c | 457.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 14c | 354$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed No | 71c | 326.16$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 24c | 269.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 5c | 260$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked No | 37c | 250$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 38c | 159.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 18c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…6d1cbacked Yes | 47c | 101.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…ad35backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…16e6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…ac12backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed Yes | 34c | 57.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…f056backed Yes | 37c | 38.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…15fcbacked No | 69c | 38.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…e912backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed No | 68c | 32.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…583ebacked No | 69c | 31.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 45c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…2146backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…5579backed No | 80c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $230 September 15-21?this page
- Will Solana dip to $190 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana dip to $200 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana dip to $210 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana dip to $220 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 September 15-21?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $260 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $270 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $280 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $290 September 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.