Us Politics · resolved market
Epstein video removed from the DOJ website by Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfbb131422ea2a6c1dcbe465b38d735d61f835fbecf58b33059cc61e6bb07d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 2c | 12,495$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 8,938$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 1c | 7,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 1c | 6,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…d914backed No | 3c | 3,420$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed No | 1c | 3,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…7a93backed No | 2c | 1,816$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…137cbacked No | 1c | 1,721$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…68dcbacked No | 1c | 1,076$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…e77fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 5c | 992.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked No | 8c | 681.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…45e1backed No | 3c | 645.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe55…25febacked No | 3c | 635.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 8c | 256$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed No | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 53c | 172$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 39c | 64.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4d…c654backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.