Poker · resolved market
Will Doug Polk’s win his “Every Starting Hand” Challenge?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf26a069108339c939b206b55fbaa235b3951d8f24e09d2c47235067086c85d6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 2c | 4,080$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked No | 42c | 2,494$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50d…7979backed Yes | 40c | 2,387$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 57c | 1,636$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…4e9bbacked No | 29c | 1,594$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 40c | 1,575$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 53c | 1,400$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 61c | 735$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 4c | 562.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f237backed No | 65c | 543.07$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 47c | 467.76$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…94f1backed No | 62c | 396.72$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 58c | 384.29$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 63c | 290.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 78c | 189.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed No | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 71c | 122.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 36c | 113.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 52c | 89.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed No | 24c | 86.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked Yes | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 34c | 74.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…c32abacked No | 44c | 62.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 47c | 55.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…5428backed Yes | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…eaf5backed No | 48c | 41.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed Yes | 52c | 38.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…65e2backed No | 48c | 22.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.