Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Leicester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66c499a514f512bfc329141858fe2bd2ba607e340973112e45c8a8371cfcb14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a45…df65backed No | 69c | 1,763$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked No | 17c | 1,279$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…b2f4backed Yes | 73c | 630.14$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 79c | 600$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 68c | 370.13$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 31c | 344.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.75 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 12c | 307.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…434cbacked No | 26c | 231.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +329.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 11c | 209.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…2adcbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…7e03backed Yes | 70c | 165.72$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 67cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +426.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Yes | 80c | 70.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d6…e639backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…4f31backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa0…5625backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Leicester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Leicester City? Yes won
- Will Leicester City beat Arsenal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.