Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Leicester City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13813f310d11d7d8d93244ca9c9c81722fb64140a2d526851505008832519c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 47c | 5,982$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.84 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 17c | 5,880$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 16c | 5,528$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed No | 17c | 4,061$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 18c | 2,846$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.35 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…b89cbacked Yes | 26c | 560$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb06…3dd0backed No | 20c | 536.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed No | 19c | 518.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 17c | 513.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 16c | 499.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…215ebacked No | 53c | 377.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…2549backed No | 17c | 347$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 59c | 283$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +426.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…6377backed No | 17c | 119.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…93dfbacked No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…73d5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 80c | 85.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…6cfebacked No | 19c | 84.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…48c4backed No | 19c | 68.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ce…a568backed No | 18c | 57.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…25b1backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd9…986bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Leicester City? this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Leicester City end in a draw?No won
- Will Leicester City beat Arsenal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.