Us Midterms · resolved market
Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad08695fe7615a77d0b8a353f86d82cc6f0d20de5acc548ca4c8b65b1254253f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 68c | 14,144$9,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,534.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 28c | 4,858$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,502.58 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 35c | 4,732$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 0c | 2,781$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked No | 43c | 2,312$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 2c | 2,207$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 42c | 1,446$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.22 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 36c | 1,048$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…0c2fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,000$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 14c | 996.04$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.92 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 32c | 900$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 898.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 48c | 853.43$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 66c | 674.36$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…67c4backed Yes | 64c | 586.3$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 557.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.49 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 34c | 519.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…1bebbacked Yes | 69c | 456.41$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 69c | 400$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 54c | 362.59$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 28c | 284.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 274.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Yes | 13c | 262.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 70c | 258.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 24c | 255.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 44c | 214.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 34c | 204.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…369cbacked Yes | 63c | 201.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 50c | 195.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 41c | 193.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked No | 34c | 176.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 73c | 175.44$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 69c | 145.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked No | 59c | 116.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 73c | 110.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…f5dbbacked Yes | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 40c | 82.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 76.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 53c | 53.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +150%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 50.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 50.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked No | 57c | 43.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 67c | 40.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 58c | 36.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…cce5backed Yes | 56c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 53c | 33.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…3319backed Yes | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…c917backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 53c | 29.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…d786backed Yes | 69c | 29.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 51c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…27b1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 74c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?this page
- Will between 50-54 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will between 65-69 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will between 70-74 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will between 75-79 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will between 80-84 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will between 85-89 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will between 90-94 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will less than 50 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?No won
- Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.