TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Yoon arrested by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$301,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$307,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes1c41,339$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6511013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes10c22,431$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.957345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0b…fb58backed Yes1c20,472$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c13,110$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.26780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes5c12,006$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.728921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes0c10,188$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.523318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes1c9,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+116.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes9c8,389$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.311118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes48c8,160$3,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,941.875648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes26c6,845$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.4720538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eeb…9c5ebacked No47c5,144$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,721.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+70.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes1c4,994$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-90.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes8c4,247$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c4,226$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.738838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdd…a653backed No68c3,779$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No64c3,424$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.7916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes1c3,375$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.092650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes30c3,348$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.832737%10 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes2c3,242$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.481414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No60c2,689$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.993234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No66c2,602$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.883040%12 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes33c2,550$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.161942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x528f…8496backed Yes1c2,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No71c2,469$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.623636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed No79c2,123$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.99650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed No69c2,000$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6302100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed5…77bebacked Yes1c1,537$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb504…44f5backed Yes30c1,315$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked No59c1,268$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.241414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5e…3e95backed Yes1c1,230$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.461850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes3c1,185$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9513525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked No75c1,161$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b21…44d5backed Yes1c1,024$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a68…835abacked Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes31c998.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.693930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ed…f271backed Yes2c917.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b4…b468backed No60c915.61$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb91f…e659backed Yes7c809.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes2c777.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.828048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…a12abacked Yes36c751.5$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.831618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad9…8373backed No67c737.12$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+100.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes10c717.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.783842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes30c673.13$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.942330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes2c612.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17de…b94ebacked No73c604.94$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes42c550$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.751233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes42c517.62$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe425…9e9abacked Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes24c438.05$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9820614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x691f…d3ecbacked Yes15c393.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8380%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes53c343.89$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.693823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked Yes12c328.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc1…60acbacked No70c303.01$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.881723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No64c275$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.53525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f9d…bb71backed Yes7c273.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0c…07cebacked No77c261.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No44c220$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+75.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8512…a3d2backed Yes29c205.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b94…88c4backed No44c188.01$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes37c187.85$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4110131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes17c171.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.651729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No69c170$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5512056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98a0…be53backed No78c163.01$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.861216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-64.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fdd…b30abacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd7…c531backed No50c155$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…cb25backed No65c153.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b6…3ef4backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddca…b0f3backed Yes32c140$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes32c127.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.72875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1f…3dcbbacked No69c123.25$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab81…5ecdbacked Yes33c110$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea9…e97ebacked Yes51c110$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea8…87c4backed No69c105$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No58c104$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.243511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd477…6c04backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0704…1858backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8109…aedabacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae3…5459backed No72c90.14$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec0…17b2backed Yes57c87.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefda…7da5backed Yes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7313…cbbcbacked Yes34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked Yes26c76.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No68c75.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.291361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9f…2b46backed No53c73.17$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae9…3beebacked No69c72.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Yes60c67.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa7bc…c783backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2617…afc5backed Yes39c51.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12e…3689backed No49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0384…d4efbacked No41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+195.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x676e…8aa7backed Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9503…ce42backed Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No69c47.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…fbdcbacked No77c45.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed No68c43.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-70.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes31c41.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.829053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd028…3bd2backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.