Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523a8ec4c760566b3fe432749411545d85f93bd1f579ffd1eff94d3e9940ec7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 24c | 1,542$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 65c | 999.99$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 76c | 845.04$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 32c | 778.74$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.19 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 80c | 684.47$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 26c | 586.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.23 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 39c | 456.43$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 58c | 431.21$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.16 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 35c | 403.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 30c | 396.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.35 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 39c | 382.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.97 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…1d0cbacked Yes | 39c | 331.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…d33fbacked Yes | 79c | 323.26$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 72c | 317.03$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 16c | 293.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.93 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 43c | 285.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 39c | 230.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 62c | 217.23$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 29c | 209.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…c96dbacked Yes | 32c | 156.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 21c | 141.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 15c | 141.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 50c | 128.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…48bcbacked Yes | 18c | 127.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 45c | 111.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed No | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Yes | 39c | 101.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 47c | 100.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 37c | 92.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6b…4cdcbacked No | 78c | 85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 82.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 36c | 78.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8eafbacked Yes | 38c | 70.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 60.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…8d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…0973backed Yes | 57c | 47.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 44.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…5cb0backed Yes | 79c | 41.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…cf3abacked Yes | 50c | 40.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…664bbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 28.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…2e9fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…8345backed No | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 15-19 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-24 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 25-29 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 35-39 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 40-44 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 45-49 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 50 or more times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet less than 10 times Jan 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.