Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet less than 10 times Jan 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97dbfd8ab6e831d5e2d3a96a223f8169465d07f6ea5ccf4881b042df5398b2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 4c | 3,741$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,654$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 7c | 2,052$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 4c | 985.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 750$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 7c | 514.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 14c | 293.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 15c | 274.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 14c | 240.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed Yes | 22c | 220.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 8c | 151.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…d33fbacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 8c | 134.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 17c | 109.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 72c | 96.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 77c | 85.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…b810backed Yes | 20c | 79.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 19c | 77.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 49c | 71.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…7cc5backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 33.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 58c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet less than 10 times Jan 22-29?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29?Yes won
- Will POTUS tweet 15-19 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-24 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 25-29 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 35-39 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 40-44 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 45-49 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 50 or more times Jan 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.