Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet 15-19 times Jan 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e25e77b4b69645611db3d6df08e515d9fe5d1c58883b978dab919d17ff18ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 9c | 575.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5743…f41abacked Yes | 34c | 500.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 16c | 457.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 25c | 398.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 30c | 353.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 11c | 337.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…c96dbacked Yes | 17c | 293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 17c | 290.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 14c | 288.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 74c | 268.26$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 259.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 247.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 42c | 229.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 20c | 224.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 52c | 219.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 182.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 66c | 175.14$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Yes | 33c | 147.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…f9abbacked Yes | 54c | 132.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 48c | 128.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 58c | 112.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 74c | 111.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…d33fbacked Yes | 36c | 100.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Yes | 61c | 81.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…e885backed Yes | 58c | 72.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 67.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…7cc5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 32c | 61.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…664bbacked Yes | 70c | 57.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…4a36backed Yes | 22c | 54.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9a…1ad5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…de03backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…7a68backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 32c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ab8cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…4925backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…3689backed Yes | 70c | 18.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet 15-19 times Jan 22-29?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29?Yes won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-24 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 25-29 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 35-39 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 40-44 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 45-49 times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 50 or more times Jan 22-29?No won
- Will POTUS tweet less than 10 times Jan 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.