World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Mazowieckie?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5af765189d54063dce884ad9aa5ba18aea1728a53b59e7e6b0124540c739adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trzaskowskiof Trzaskowski, Nawrocki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6441…139ebacked Trzaskowski | 56c | 15,676$8,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,959.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Nawrocki | 42c | 9,859$4,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.02 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…42acbacked Nawrocki | 27c | 8,033$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…14e9backed Trzaskowski | 74c | 4,796$3,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Trzaskowski | 54c | 4,746$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.02 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Nawrocki | 12c | 4,716$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.76 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Nawrocki | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Nawrocki | 14c | 2,949$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Trzaskowski | 40c | 2,807$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.75 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Nawrocki | 11c | 2,480$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.43 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Trzaskowski | 80c | 1,315$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Nawrocki | 16c | 1,282$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Nawrocki | 14c | 1,215$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Nawrocki | 31c | 1,114$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.41 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked Nawrocki | 12c | 1,099$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked Trzaskowski | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…fb77backed Trzaskowski | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…c602backed Nawrocki | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…96cdbacked Nawrocki | 24c | 960$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Nawrocki | 19c | 881.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Nawrocki | 46c | 694.1$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…61ddbacked Nawrocki | 24c | 685$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Nawrocki | 25c | 666$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…0e86backed Trzaskowski | 76c | 640$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Nawrocki | 17c | 600.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Trzaskowski | 45c | 500$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Trzaskowski | 66c | 491.51$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Nawrocki | 19c | 462$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Trzaskowski | 70c | 449.11$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…2d11backed Trzaskowski | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Nawrocki | 14c | 305.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Nawrocki | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Nawrocki | 26c | 300$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Nawrocki | 17c | 288.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…8488backed Nawrocki | 4c | 256.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Nawrocki | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Nawrocki | 22c | 245.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Trzaskowski | 76c | 245$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Trzaskowski | 61c | 242$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…fad0backed Nawrocki | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…2ffdbacked Trzaskowski | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Trzaskowski | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Nawrocki | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…ae46backed Nawrocki | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Trzaskowski | 58c | 190$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Trzaskowski | 66c | 173.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Nawrocki | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…c56ebacked Nawrocki | 14c | 143.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb494…81e9backed Nawrocki | 16c | 141.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Nawrocki | 15c | 133.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Nawrocki | 32c | 123.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa342…ddc6backed Nawrocki | 15c | 102.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Nawrocki | 21c | 100.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Trzaskowski | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nawrocki | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…1edcbacked Nawrocki | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Nawrocki | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Trzaskowski | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Nawrocki | 36c | 88.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Nawrocki | 33c | 74.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e0…922ebacked Nawrocki | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Nawrocki | 25c | 63.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…e07dbacked Nawrocki | 32c | 63.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…8bb2backed Nawrocki | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Trzaskowski | 70c | 57.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Nawrocki | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…cb9cbacked Trzaskowski | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Trzaskowski | 75c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf441…5b58backed Trzaskowski | 73c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Mazowieckie?this page
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Dolnośląskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Kujawsko-Pomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Lubelskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Lubuskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Małopolskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Opolskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Podkarpackie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Podlaskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Pomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Warmińsko-Mazurskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Zachodniopomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Łódzkie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Śląskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Świętokrzyskie?Nawrocki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.