World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Śląskie?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef44c31ce755b93d9300c003f3fa928e56d0bec1ff8cb257a2c50d2d2b9eedd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trzaskowskiof Trzaskowski, Nawrocki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Nawrocki | 13c | 3,080$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.23 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Nawrocki | 8c | 1,800$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Nawrocki | 7c | 1,559$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…1edcbacked Nawrocki | 9c | 1,254$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Nawrocki | 11c | 1,247$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Trzaskowski | 75c | 1,139$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Nawrocki | 8c | 687.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…15a7backed Nawrocki | 7c | 647.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Nawrocki | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Nawrocki | 5c | 566.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Nawrocki | 12c | 559.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Nawrocki | 16c | 545.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Nawrocki | 17c | 480$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb494…81e9backed Nawrocki | 11c | 450.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…ae46backed Nawrocki | 8c | 342.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Nawrocki | 10c | 293.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Nawrocki | 19c | 273.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Nawrocki | 15c | 271$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Nawrocki | 7c | 254$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Nawrocki | 14c | 210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Nawrocki | 10c | 206.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…c56ebacked Nawrocki | 10c | 203.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Nawrocki | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Nawrocki | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Nawrocki | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Nawrocki | 25c | 195.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…8488backed Nawrocki | 7c | 179.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Nawrocki | 13c | 128$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…ce66backed Nawrocki | 9c | 113$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…15c5backed Nawrocki | 10c | 112.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Nawrocki | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Śląskie?this page
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Dolnośląskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Kujawsko-Pomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Lubelskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Lubuskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Mazowieckie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Małopolskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Opolskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Podkarpackie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Podlaskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Pomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Warmińsko-Mazurskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Zachodniopomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Łódzkie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Świętokrzyskie?Nawrocki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.