TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Trzaskowskiof Trzaskowski, Nawrocki
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,603 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Nawrocki7c3,150$233 inLost-$23319027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd757…42acbacked Nawrocki16c1,652$260 inLost-$2601816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Nawrocki11c1,051$112 inLost-$111.936883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Nawrocki8c888$71 inLost-$71.042634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Trzaskowski75c846$635 inWon+$211.058047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Nawrocki3c699$22 inLost-$22.2429.5%4 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Nawrocki5c418.91$21 inLost-$20.9557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d3f…de34backed Nawrocki25c405.68$100 inLost-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bf…3646backed Nawrocki8c292.41$22 inLost-$22166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-85.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01f2…15c5backed Nawrocki4c285.94$11 inLost-$11140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Nawrocki7c276.44$19 inLost-$18.69119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Nawrocki6c169.99$10 inLost-$10.22839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nawrocki10c116$11 inLost-$11.441,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…32b3backed Trzaskowski76c100$76 inWon+$241546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Trzaskowski73c21$15 inWon+$5.624365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.