World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Łódzkie?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99714ed6ee5d8801dd9d02f6792eebab4120d05f4f70c3d8ee6915da9d00231f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nawrockiof Trzaskowski, Nawrocki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Trzaskowski | 27c | 18,990$5,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,201.1 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked Nawrocki | 71c | 14,921$10,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,328.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Trzaskowski | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Nawrocki | 71c | 4,879$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…7977backed Nawrocki | 77c | 3,266$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Trzaskowski | 24c | 2,624$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.94 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Trzaskowski | 19c | 2,524$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.66 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Nawrocki | 72c | 2,174$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.26 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9843…9c03backed Trzaskowski | 16c | 2,173$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Trzaskowski | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked Trzaskowski | 18c | 1,788$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Trzaskowski | 2c | 1,358$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Trzaskowski | 8c | 1,256$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Trzaskowski | 24c | 1,183$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.77 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Trzaskowski | 24c | 1,128$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed Trzaskowski | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Trzaskowski | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Trzaskowski | 30c | 933.51$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Nawrocki | 36c | 860.15$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.13 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Nawrocki | 75c | 702.61$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Nawrocki | 72c | 653.94$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Trzaskowski | 9c | 613$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Trzaskowski | 28c | 588$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Nawrocki | 78c | 564.1$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed Nawrocki | 77c | 542.4$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Trzaskowski | 26c | 540$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Trzaskowski | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Nawrocki | 73c | 412.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Trzaskowski | 26c | 390.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Trzaskowski | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Trzaskowski | 29c | 309.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Trzaskowski | 33c | 303.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Trzaskowski | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Nawrocki | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Nawrocki | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…2ffdbacked Nawrocki | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Nawrocki | 71c | 184.52$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Trzaskowski | 32c | 179$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a38…ec19backed Trzaskowski | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Nawrocki | 77c | 114.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Nawrocki | 72c | 110.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Trzaskowski | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Trzaskowski | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Trzaskowski | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…c56ebacked Trzaskowski | 23c | 87.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…3646backed Trzaskowski | 31c | 81.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Nawrocki | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Nawrocki | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…15c5backed Trzaskowski | 16c | 67.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Trzaskowski | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…ac37backed Trzaskowski | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Nawrocki | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Trzaskowski | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Nawrocki | 70c | 34.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…1edcbacked Nawrocki | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Nawrocki | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Nawrocki | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Trzaskowski | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Łódzkie?this page
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Dolnośląskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Kujawsko-Pomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Lubelskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Lubuskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Mazowieckie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Małopolskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Opolskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Podkarpackie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Podlaskie?Nawrocki won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Pomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Warmińsko-Mazurskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Wielkopolskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Zachodniopomorskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Śląskie?Trzaskowski won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Świętokrzyskie?Nawrocki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.